Wednesday, February 4, 2009

Thought of the day "Eco-virus"

Unlike past modern day recessions which were a system-wide response to A) Industrial overcapacity and or B) Excess inventory, the current crisis is very similar to a computer virus that infects one nod of the system and then spreads like a plague.

I think the critical elements of the Eco-virus are:

  • Fundamental Failures of Market Structure Due to the Rapid adoption of trading technology
  • Regulations like SOX, SHO,NMS, FASB 157 and 123 that have closed capital markets and have destroyed value though system wide chain reactions.
  • The inability of regulations burdened by the new rules to fundamentally regulate.
  • The failure of the US Treasury Department to fund the TARP program which would serve as a firewall to other ABS securities and allow market values to approximate intrinsic values.

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